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Teuta Durrës vs Kamza — Superliga 2018

Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Kamza
Kamza
4/29/2018SuperligaSuperliga · Round 31Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teuta Durrës60%
×Draw25%
Kamza14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teuta Durrës
1.56
Kamza
0.61

Teuta Durrës creates 156% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 19 away

creates per match

Teuta Durrës
1.13
Kamza
0.37

allows per match

Teuta Durrës
0.86
Kamza
2.00

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par
Kamza+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

Kamza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw
86%
Teuta Durrës or Kamza
75%
Draw or Kamza
40%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
33%
Kamza wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
79%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
46%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
21%
Kamza 1+ goals
46%
Kamza 2+ goals
13%
Kamza 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
81%
Kamza (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.86 · 146 matches

Kamza away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.13 + Kamza defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kamza attack 0.37 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more
60%
level
25%
Kamza scores more
14%

Teuta Durrës at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teuta Durrës vs Kamza

Teuta Durrës and Kamza drew 3-3 in Superliga on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.