Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kamza vs Teuta Durrës — Superliga 2018

Kamza
Kamza
FT
0 – 3
Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
4/19/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 30Stadiumi Kamza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kamza23%
×Draw28%
Teuta Durrës49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamza
0.81
Teuta Durrës
1.32

Teuta Durrës creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 144 away

creates per match

Kamza
0.50
Teuta Durrës
0.93

allows per match

Kamza
1.72
Teuta Durrës
1.12

finishing

Kamza+0.00on par
Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamza ↓

Teuta Durrës →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kamza or draw
51%
Kamza or Teuta Durrës
72%
Draw or Teuta Durrës
77%

Winning margin

Kamza wins by 2+
7%
Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kamza 1+ goals
56%
Kamza 2+ goals
19%
Kamza 3+ goals
5%
Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
73%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
38%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kamza (draw refunded)
32%
Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamza at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamza attack 0.50 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.81

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Kamza defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kamza scores more
23%
level
28%
Teuta Durrës scores more
49%

Teuta Durrës at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Kamza 0–3 Teuta Durrës

Teuta Durrës beat Kamza 3-0 in Superliga on April 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Kamza in Kamëz.