Teuta Durrës 1–0 Kamza: Result & Stats | Superliga

Teuta Durrës

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kamza

9/2/2018

Superliga · Round 3Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Teuta Durrës62%

×Draw25%

Kamza13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teuta DurrësExpected goals in this matchKamza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.53

Teuta Durrës

1.53

Kamza

0.53

Teuta Durrës creates 189% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 18 away

1.12

creates per match

0.22

0.84

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Teuta Durrës

1.12

Kamza

0.22

allows per match

Teuta Durrës

0.84

Kamza

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Kamza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

Kamza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw

87%

Teuta Durrës or Kamza

75%

Draw or Kamza

38%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

33%

Kamza wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

78%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

45%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

20%

Kamza 1+ goals

41%

Kamza 2+ goals

10%

Kamza 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

83%

Kamza (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.84 · 145 matches

Kamza away — creates 0.22, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.12 + Kamza defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kamza attack 0.22 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more

62%

level

25%

Kamza scores more

13%

Teuta Durrës at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff