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Teuta Durrës vs Dinamo Tirana — Superliga 2018

Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
1/15/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Teuta Durrës43%
×Draw29%
Dinamo Tirana27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teuta Durrës
1.21
Dinamo Tirana
0.90

Teuta Durrës creates 34% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 76 away

creates per match

Teuta Durrës
1.13
Dinamo Tirana
0.93

allows per match

Teuta Durrës
0.86
Dinamo Tirana
1.30

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par
Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

Dinamo Tirana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw
73%
Teuta Durrës or Dinamo Tirana
71%
Draw or Dinamo Tirana
57%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
70%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
34%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
59%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
61%
Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.86 · 146 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.13 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dinamo Tirana attack 0.93 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more
43%
level
29%
Dinamo Tirana scores more
27%

Teuta Durrës at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Teuta Durrës 0–0 Dinamo Tirana

Teuta Durrës and Dinamo Tirana drew 0-0 in Superliga on January 15, 2026.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana.