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Dinamo Tirana vs Teuta Durrës — Superliga 2018

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Teuta Durrës
Teuta Durrës
11/3/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 10Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dinamo Tirana40%
×Draw29%
Teuta Durrës30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.17
Teuta Durrës
0.97

Dinamo Tirana creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 144 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.21
Teuta Durrës
0.93

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.00
Teuta Durrës
1.12

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Teuta Durrës →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
70%
Dinamo Tirana or Teuta Durrës
71%
Draw or Teuta Durrës
60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
17%
Teuta Durrës wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
11%
Teuta Durrës 1+ goals
62%
Teuta Durrës 2+ goals
25%
Teuta Durrës 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
57%
Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
40%
level
29%
Teuta Durrës scores more
30%

Dinamo Tirana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Tirana vs Teuta Durrës

Dinamo Tirana and Teuta Durrës drew 0-0 in Superliga on November 3, 2025.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasani.