Dinamo Tirana 0–1 Teuta Durrës: Result & Stats

Dinamo Tirana

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Teuta Durrës

3/15/2026

Superliga · Round 28Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dinamo Tirana40%

×Draw29%

Teuta Durrës30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo TiranaExpected goals in this matchTeuta Durrës

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.97

Dinamo Tirana

1.17

Teuta Durrës

0.97

Dinamo Tirana creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 144 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana

1.21

Teuta Durrës

0.93

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana

1.00

Teuta Durrës

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Teuta Durrës →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw

70%

Dinamo Tirana or Teuta Durrës

71%

Draw or Teuta Durrës

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

17%

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

11%

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

62%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

25%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

57%

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more

40%

level

29%

Teuta Durrës scores more

30%

Dinamo Tirana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff