Tennessee 3–2 Birmingham Legion II: Result & Stats

Tennessee

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Birmingham Legion II

7/10/2025

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 22Nolensville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tennessee49%

×Draw21%

Birmingham Legion II30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TennesseeExpected goals in this matchBirmingham Legion II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.57

Tennessee

2.04

Birmingham Legion II

1.57

Tennessee creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

1.27

1.88

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Tennessee

2.00

Birmingham Legion II

1.27

allows per match

Tennessee

1.88

Birmingham Legion II

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tennessee+0.00on par

Birmingham Legion II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennessee ↓

Birmingham Legion II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tennessee or draw

70%

Tennessee or Birmingham Legion II

79%

Draw or Birmingham Legion II

51%

Winning margin

Tennessee wins by 2+

28%

Birmingham Legion II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tennessee 1+ goals

87%

Tennessee 2+ goals

60%

Tennessee 3+ goals

33%

Birmingham Legion II 1+ goals

79%

Birmingham Legion II 2+ goals

46%

Birmingham Legion II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tennessee (draw refunded)

62%

Birmingham Legion II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennessee at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Birmingham Legion II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennessee attack 2.00 + Birmingham Legion II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Birmingham Legion II attack 1.27 + Tennessee defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tennessee scores more

49%

level

21%

Birmingham Legion II scores more

30%

Tennessee at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff