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Birmingham Legion II vs Tennessee — USL League Two 2026

Birmingham Legion II
Birmingham Legion II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tennessee
Tennessee
6/26/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 16Dunnavent Valley Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Birmingham Legion II34%
×Draw26%
Tennessee40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion II
1.25
Tennessee
1.38

Tennessee creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion II
1.08
Tennessee
1.00

allows per match

Birmingham Legion II
1.75
Tennessee
1.43

finishing

Birmingham Legion II+0.00on par
Tennessee+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion II ↓

Tennessee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion II or draw
60%
Birmingham Legion II or Tennessee
74%
Draw or Tennessee
66%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion II wins by 2+
15%
Tennessee wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion II 1+ goals
71%
Birmingham Legion II 2+ goals
36%
Birmingham Legion II 3+ goals
13%
Tennessee 1+ goals
75%
Tennessee 2+ goals
40%
Tennessee 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion II (draw refunded)
46%
Tennessee (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Tennessee away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion II attack 1.08 + Tennessee defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tennessee attack 1.00 + Birmingham Legion II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Birmingham Legion II scores more
34%
level
26%
Tennessee scores more
40%

Tennessee at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham Legion II vs Tennessee

Tennessee beat Birmingham Legion II 1-0 in USL League Two on June 26, 2025.

The match was played at Dunnavent Valley Field 3 in Birmingham, AL.