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Tennessee vs Birmingham Legion II — USL League Two 2026

Tennessee
Tennessee
FT
2 – 0
Birmingham Legion II
Birmingham Legion II
Unknown 52', 18'
5/21/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 2Nolensville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tennessee47%
×Draw22%
Birmingham Legion II31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tennessee
1.96
Birmingham Legion II
1.58

Tennessee creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tennessee
1.92
Birmingham Legion II
1.25

allows per match

Tennessee
1.92
Birmingham Legion II
2.00

finishing

Tennessee+0.00on par
Birmingham Legion II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennessee ↓

Birmingham Legion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tennessee or draw
69%
Tennessee or Birmingham Legion II
78%
Draw or Birmingham Legion II
53%

Winning margin

Tennessee wins by 2+
26%
Birmingham Legion II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tennessee 1+ goals
86%
Tennessee 2+ goals
58%
Tennessee 3+ goals
31%
Birmingham Legion II 1+ goals
79%
Birmingham Legion II 2+ goals
47%
Birmingham Legion II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tennessee (draw refunded)
60%
Birmingham Legion II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennessee at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Birmingham Legion II away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennessee attack 1.92 + Birmingham Legion II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Birmingham Legion II attack 1.25 + Tennessee defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tennessee scores more
47%
level
22%
Birmingham Legion II scores more
31%

Tennessee at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tennessee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
52'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tennessee vs Birmingham Legion II

Tennessee beat Birmingham Legion II 2-0 in USL League Two on May 21, 2024.

Goals: ? (18', 52').

The match was played at Nolensville Stadium in Nolensville, Tennessee.