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Telstar vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
B. van Schuppen 74'
H. Deenen 54', 23'
8/16/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 2711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Telstar42%
×Draw24%
FC Eindhoven34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.58
FC Eindhoven
1.41

Telstar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 143 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.30

allows per match

Telstar
1.52
FC Eindhoven
1.66

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
66%
Telstar or FC Eindhoven
76%
Draw or FC Eindhoven
58%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
21%
FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
79%
Telstar 2+ goals
47%
Telstar 3+ goals
21%
FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
76%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
41%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
55%
FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.50 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

FC Eindhoven attack 1.30 + Telstar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Telstar scores more
42%
level
24%
FC Eindhoven scores more
34%

Telstar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
S. BlummelFC EindhovenFC Eindhoven · M
8.5

Match Events

16'
Yael Gil y Muiños
23'
H. Deenen↳ B. van Schuppen
24'
T. Simons← Y. Gil y Muiños
29'
D. Huisman← E. Rottier
54'
H. Deenen↳ S. Blummel
60'
S. Hetli← M. Kaandorp
74'
B. van Schuppen↳ S. Blummel
78'
S. Hagedoorn← Y. El Kachati
78'
R. van Ekeris← M. Apau
81'
A. El Bouchataoui← D. Dorenbosch
81'
J. Kwaaitaal← H. Deenen

Possession

54%Telstar

Shots

10Telstar

Pass accuracy

53%Telstar

Statistics

TelstarFC
Overview
54%Possession46%
10Total Shots7
8Corners1
11Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots7
2On Target3
5Off Target2
3Blocked2
8Inside Box4
2Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
422Total Passes380
347Accurate Passes281
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Telstar 0–3 FC Eindhoven

FC Eindhoven beat Telstar 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on August 16, 2024.

Goals: H. Deenen (23', 54'), B. van Schuppen (74').

Telstar controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at 711 Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.