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FC Eindhoven vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Telstar
Telstar
S. Hetli 55', 26'
M. Hamdaoui 19'
Y. El Kachati 10'
4/18/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 35Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

FC Eindhoven45%
×Draw24%
Telstar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.65
Telstar
1.31

FC Eindhoven creates 26% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 129 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.61
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.45
Telstar
1.69

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
70%
FC Eindhoven or Telstar
76%
Draw or Telstar
55%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
24%
Telstar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
81%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
49%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
23%
Telstar 1+ goals
73%
Telstar 2+ goals
38%
Telstar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
60%
Telstar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.45 · 149 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.61 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.65

Telstar attack 1.18 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
45%
level
24%
Telstar scores more
30%

FC Eindhoven at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
S. HetliTelstarTelstar · F
8.7

Match Events

8'
Tyrese Noslin
10'
Y. El Kachati↳ J. Hardeveld
19'
M. Hamdaoui
26'
S. Hetli↳ N. Rossen
46'
J. Borgmans← J. Brondeel
46'
T. Simons← S. Blummel
46'
H. Deenen← J. Sleegers
46'
J. Turfkruier← T. Noslin
55'
S. Hetli
64'
R. van Ekeris← N. Rossen
65'
R. Kharchouch← Y. El Kachati
71'
J. Konings← R. Janga
76'
F. Limouri← T. Douglas
76'
A. Lechkar← M. Hamdaoui
85'
Jayden Turfkruier
86'
A. Douiri← J. Hardeveld

Possession

45%FC

Shots

5FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCTelstar
Overview
45%Possession55%
5Total Shots17
3Corners5
7Fouls16
Shots
5Total Shots17
4On Target7
1Off Target8
0Blocked2
3Inside Box8
2Outside Box9
Passing
45%Possession55%
383Total Passes479
312Accurate Passes412
81%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Eindhoven vs Telstar

Telstar beat FC Eindhoven 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 18, 2025.

Goals: Y. El Kachati (10'), M. Hamdaoui (19'), S. Hetli (26', 55').

Telstar controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 5.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.