FC Eindhoven 1–1 Telstar: Result & Stats

FC Eindhoven

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Telstar

E. Rottier 3'

Z. Eddahchouri 55'

4/28/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 36Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

FC Eindhoven45%

×Draw24%

Telstar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EindhovenExpected goals in this matchTelstar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.31

FC Eindhoven

1.65

Telstar

1.31

FC Eindhoven creates 26% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 129 away

1.61

creates per match

1.18

1.45

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

FC Eindhoven

1.61

Telstar

1.18

allows per match

FC Eindhoven

1.45

Telstar

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

Telstar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw

70%

FC Eindhoven or Telstar

76%

Draw or Telstar

55%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+

24%

Telstar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals

81%

FC Eindhoven 2+ goals

49%

FC Eindhoven 3+ goals

23%

Telstar 1+ goals

73%

Telstar 2+ goals

38%

Telstar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)

60%

Telstar (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.45 · 149 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.61 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.65

Telstar attack 1.18 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more

45%

level

24%

Telstar scores more

30%

FC Eindhoven at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Z. Eddahchouri

Telstar · F

7.6

Match Events

3'

E. Rottier↳ A. El Bouchataoui

38'

Mawouna Amevor

55'

Z. Eddahchouri

62'

J. Borgmans← J. Brondeel

63'

J. Dahlhaus← J. Ogenia

63'

M. Lieder← D. Dorenbosch

72'

J. Sleegers← A. El Bouchataoui

72'

M. Kaandorp← T. Overtoom

73'

D. Gravenberch← Z. Eddahchouri

79'

C. Giousis← D. Koswal

79'

C. Seedorf← M. Tahiri

80'

Mart Lieder

90+4'

Y. Boussakou← T. van de Loo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCTelstar

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots18

8Corners10

10Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots18

2On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked7

6Inside Box10

2Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

253Total Passes444

175Accurate Passes367

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1