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Telstar vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Emmen
Emmen
Y. El Kachati 73'
J. Hardeveld 24'
G. Offerhaus 4'
5/9/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 38711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Telstar40%
×Draw25%
Emmen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.50
Emmen
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 76 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.50
Emmen
1.30

allows per match

Telstar
1.52
Emmen
1.50

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
Emmen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
64%
Telstar or Emmen
75%
Draw or Emmen
60%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
19%
Emmen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
78%
Telstar 2+ goals
44%
Telstar 3+ goals
19%
Emmen 1+ goals
76%
Emmen 2+ goals
41%
Emmen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
53%
Emmen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.50 + Emmen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Emmen attack 1.30 + Telstar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Telstar scores more
40%
level
25%
Emmen scores more
36%

Telstar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Guus OfferhausTelstarTelstar · D
7.9

Match Events

3'
Robin Schouten
4'
G. Offerhaus
23'
Jorginho Soares
24'
J. Hardeveld
27'
Nils Rossen
46'
F. Hammouti← J. Soares
58'
Y. Eduardo← F. Wagner
60'
R. Kharchouch← M. Hamdaoui
60'
D. Koswal← S. Hetli
63'
F. Quispel← F. Evina
69'
D. Nunumete← J. Hawkins
70'
C. Landu← R. Schouten
73'
Y. El Kachati↳ T. Owusu
74'
J. Turfkruier← T. Noslin
74'
T. Overtoom← N. Rossen
85'
R. van Ekeris← Y. El Kachati

Possession

32%Telstar

Shots

12Telstar

Pass accuracy

44%Telstar

Statistics

TelstarEmmen
Overview
32%Possession68%
12Total Shots10
2Corners6
8Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots10
5On Target2
5Off Target3
2Blocked5
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
32%Possession68%
205Total Passes440
133Accurate Passes361
65%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Telstar vs Emmen

Telstar beat Emmen 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 9, 2025.

Goals: G. Offerhaus (4'), J. Hardeveld (24'), Y. El Kachati (73').

Emmen controlled possession (68%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at 711 Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.