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Emmen vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Telstar
Telstar
D. Ubbink 24'
P. Parzyszek 5'
10/6/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 9De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen50%
×Draw24%
Telstar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.75
Telstar
1.21

Emmen creates 45% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 129 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
Telstar
1.69

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
74%
Emmen or Telstar
76%
Draw or Telstar
50%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
27%
Telstar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
83%
Emmen 2+ goals
52%
Emmen 3+ goals
25%
Telstar 1+ goals
70%
Telstar 2+ goals
34%
Telstar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
65%
Telstar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Telstar attack 1.18 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Emmen scores more
50%
level
24%
Telstar scores more
26%

Emmen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
J. HoekstraEmmenEmmen · G
8.3

Match Events

5'
P. Parzyszek↳ D. Ubbink
24'
D. Ubbink↳ A. El Messaoudi
32'
J. Soares← M. Kaandorp
57'
S. Augustijns← T. van de Loo
57'
D. Koswal← T. Oude Kotte
57'
C. Seedorf← R. Polley
59'
D. Vos← M. Heylen
60'
M. Kieftenbeld← L. Bernadou
60'
B. Scholte← A. El Messaoudi
72'
P. Brouwer← R. Schouten
79'
Maikel Kieftenbeld
83'
L. Burnet← D. Ubbink
83'
A. Bouyaghlafen← J. Turfkruier
89'
Dennis Vos

Possession

46%Emmen

Shots

7Emmen

Pass accuracy

48%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenTelstar
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots16
4Corners5
13Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots16
3On Target7
3Off Target7
1Blocked2
6Inside Box12
1Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
378Total Passes424
262Accurate Passes314
69%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
7Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Emmen vs Telstar

Emmen beat Telstar 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 6, 2023.

Goals: P. Parzyszek (5'), D. Ubbink (24').

Telstar controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.