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Emmen vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Telstar
Telstar
T. Noslin 43'
10/27/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 12De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Emmen50%
×Draw24%
Telstar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.75
Telstar
1.21

Emmen creates 45% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 129 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.82
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

Emmen
1.25
Telstar
1.69

finishing

Emmen+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
74%
Emmen or Telstar
76%
Draw or Telstar
50%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
27%
Telstar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
83%
Emmen 2+ goals
52%
Emmen 3+ goals
25%
Telstar 1+ goals
70%
Telstar 2+ goals
34%
Telstar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
65%
Telstar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.82 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Telstar attack 1.18 + Emmen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Emmen scores more
50%
level
24%
Telstar scores more
26%

Emmen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
D. BakkerTelstarTelstar · D
8.2

Match Events

43'
T. Noslin↳ M. Kaandorp
46'
R. van Ekeris← M. Kaandorp
58'
Dennis Vos
65'
F. Quispel← M. Martin
65'
A. Sadiku← D. Vos
75'
T. Owusu← T. Noslin
78'
T. Geypens← D. Nunumete
83'
F. Evina← J. Hawkins
84'
Fridolin Wagner
86'
Jayden Turfkruier
86'
J. Turfkruier← Y. El Kachati
89'
Torben Rhein
90+5'
A. Rogulj← A. Sadiku
90+5'
S. Hagedoorn← S. Dirks

Possession

57%Emmen

Shots

12Emmen

Pass accuracy

52%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenTelstar
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots12
3Corners5
22Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots12
2On Target3
7Off Target6
3Blocked3
8Inside Box9
4Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
488Total Passes363
378Accurate Passes258
77%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
22Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

Emmen 0 – 1 Telstar

Telstar beat Emmen 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 27, 2024.

Goals: T. Noslin (43').

Emmen controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.