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Telstar vs ADO Den Haag — Eredivisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
5/13/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Relegation Round711 Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Telstar54%
×Draw21%
ADO Den Haag25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
2.06
ADO Den Haag
1.35

Telstar creates 53% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.84
ADO Den Haag
1.11

allows per match

Telstar
1.58
ADO Den Haag
2.29

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
75%
Telstar or ADO Den Haag
79%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
46%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
32%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
87%
Telstar 2+ goals
61%
Telstar 3+ goals
34%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
74%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
39%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
68%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.84 + ADO Den Haag defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

ADO Den Haag attack 1.11 + Telstar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Telstar scores more
54%
level
21%
ADO Den Haag scores more
25%

Telstar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Telstar 2–0 ADO Den Haag

Telstar beat ADO Den Haag 2-0 in Eredivisie on May 13, 2025.

The match was played at 711 Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.