ADO Den Haag 0–1 Telstar: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Telstar

5/17/2025

Eredivisie · Relegation RoundBingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ADO Den Haag36%

×Draw26%

Telstar38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den HaagExpected goals in this matchTelstar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.40

ADO Den Haag

1.36

Telstar

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 20 away

1.32

creates per match

1.10

1.70

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

ADO Den Haag

1.32

Telstar

1.10

allows per match

ADO Den Haag

1.70

Telstar

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Telstar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw

62%

ADO Den Haag or Telstar

74%

Draw or Telstar

64%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

16%

Telstar wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

74%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

39%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

16%

Telstar 1+ goals

75%

Telstar 2+ goals

41%

Telstar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

49%

Telstar (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.70 · 56 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 1.32 + Telstar defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Telstar attack 1.10 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more

36%

level

26%

Telstar scores more

38%

Telstar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff