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ADO Den Haag vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Telstar
Telstar
9/20/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 7Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

ADO Den Haag52%
×Draw23%
Telstar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
1.84
Telstar
1.23

ADO Den Haag creates 50% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 130 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
2.00
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.28
Telstar
1.69

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
74%
ADO Den Haag or Telstar
77%
Draw or Telstar
48%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
29%
Telstar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
84%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
55%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
28%
Telstar 1+ goals
71%
Telstar 2+ goals
35%
Telstar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
67%
Telstar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Telstar attack 1.18 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
52%
level
23%
Telstar scores more
26%

ADO Den Haag at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: ADO Den Haag 1–1 Telstar

ADO Den Haag and Telstar drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Bingoal Stadion in ‘s-Gravenhage.