Tecnico Universitario 4–3 LDU Portoviejo

Tecnico Universitario

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

LDU Portoviejo

11/30/2017

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 44Estadio Bellavista de Ambato (Ambato)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tecnico Universitario49%

×Draw27%

LDU Portoviejo24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchLDU Portoviejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.94

Tecnico Universitario

1.45

LDU Portoviejo

0.94

Tecnico Universitario creates 54% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 85 away

1.57

creates per match

0.88

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.57

LDU Portoviejo

0.88

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.00

LDU Portoviejo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

LDU Portoviejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

76%

Tecnico Universitario or LDU Portoviejo

73%

Draw or LDU Portoviejo

51%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

24%

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

77%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

42%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

18%

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals

61%

LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals

24%

LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

67%

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

LDU Portoviejo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.57 + LDU Portoviejo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

LDU Portoviejo attack 0.88 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

49%

level

27%

LDU Portoviejo scores more

24%

Tecnico Universitario at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff