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LDU Portoviejo vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
M. Bustamante 72'
7/23/2017Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 23Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

LDU Portoviejo53%
×Draw23%
Tecnico Universitario24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Portoviejo
1.79
Tecnico Universitario
1.11

LDU Portoviejo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 14 away

creates per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.51
Tecnico Universitario
1.29

allows per match

LDU Portoviejo
0.94
Tecnico Universitario
2.07

finishing

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Portoviejo ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

LDU Portoviejo or draw
76%
LDU Portoviejo or Tecnico Universitario
77%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
47%

Winning margin

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
30%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
83%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
53%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
26%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
67%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
30%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
69%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Portoviejo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.51 + Tecnico Universitario defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.79

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.29 + LDU Portoviejo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

LDU Portoviejo scores more
53%
level
23%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
24%

LDU Portoviejo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "LDU Portoviejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
M. Bustamante

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: LDU Portoviejo 1–0 Tecnico Universitario

LDU Portoviejo beat Tecnico Universitario 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 23, 2017.

Goals: M. Bustamante (72').

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos (Portoviejo).