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LDU Portoviejo vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

LDU Portoviejo
LDU Portoviejo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
11/7/2020Liga ProLiga Pro · 2° Girone - 5Estadio Reales Tamarindos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

LDU Portoviejo40%
×Draw25%
Tecnico Universitario35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU Portoviejo
1.43
Tecnico Universitario
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 127 away

creates per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.47
Tecnico Universitario
0.86

allows per match

LDU Portoviejo
1.80
Tecnico Universitario
1.39

finishing

LDU Portoviejo+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU Portoviejo ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

LDU Portoviejo or draw
65%
LDU Portoviejo or Tecnico Universitario
75%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
60%

Winning margin

LDU Portoviejo wins by 2+
19%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

LDU Portoviejo 1+ goals
76%
LDU Portoviejo 2+ goals
42%
LDU Portoviejo 3+ goals
17%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
74%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
38%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

LDU Portoviejo (draw refunded)
53%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU Portoviejo at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU Portoviejo attack 1.47 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + LDU Portoviejo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

LDU Portoviejo scores more
40%
level
25%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
35%

LDU Portoviejo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "LDU Portoviejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: LDU Portoviejo 0–2 Tecnico Universitario

Tecnico Universitario beat LDU Portoviejo 2-0 in Liga Pro on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Reales Tamarindos in Portoviejo.