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Tauras vs Džiugas Telšiai — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tauras
Tauras
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Unknown 49', 35', 16'
Unknown 39'
1/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tauras51%
×Draw22%
Džiugas Telšiai27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tauras
1.93
Džiugas Telšiai
1.34

Tauras creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tauras
2.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.43

allows per match

Tauras
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tauras or draw
73%
Tauras or Džiugas Telšiai
78%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
49%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+
29%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals
85%
Tauras 2+ goals
57%
Tauras 3+ goals
30%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
74%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
39%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)
66%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 2.00 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.43 + Tauras defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tauras scores more
51%
level
22%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
27%

Tauras at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
35'
39'
49'
Tauras
Džiugas
Darius Gvildys
Manager: Darius Gvildys
Andrius Lipskis
Manager: Andrius Lipskis

Friendlies Clubs: Tauras 3–1 Džiugas Telšiai

Tauras beat Džiugas Telšiai 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 21, 2026.

Goals: ? (16', 35', 39', 49').