Džiugas Telšiai 0–0 Tauras: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Džiugas Telšiai

FT

0 – 0

Tauras

9/15/2017

1 Lyga · Round 25Telšių centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai51%

×Draw24%

Tauras26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchTauras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.18

Džiugas Telšiai

1.75

Tauras

1.18

Džiugas Telšiai creates 48% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 43 away

2.07

creates per match

1.42

0.93

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

2.07

Tauras

1.42

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

0.93

Tauras

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Tauras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Tauras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

74%

Džiugas Telšiai or Tauras

76%

Draw or Tauras

49%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

28%

Tauras wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

83%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

52%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

25%

Tauras 1+ goals

69%

Tauras 2+ goals

33%

Tauras 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

66%

Tauras (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Tauras away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.07 + Tauras defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tauras attack 1.42 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

51%

level

24%

Tauras scores more

26%

Džiugas Telšiai at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff