Tauras 2–3 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Tauras

FT

2 – 3

Džiugas Telšiai

6/2/2017

1 Lyga · Round 10FK Tauras dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tauras40%

×Draw24%

Džiugas Telšiai36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TaurasExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.52

Tauras

1.60

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 27 away

2.21

creates per match

1.93

1.10

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tauras

2.21

Džiugas Telšiai

1.93

allows per match

Tauras

1.10

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tauras+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tauras ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tauras or draw

64%

Tauras or Džiugas Telšiai

76%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

60%

Winning margin

Tauras wins by 2+

20%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tauras 1+ goals

80%

Tauras 2+ goals

47%

Tauras 3+ goals

22%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

78%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

45%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tauras (draw refunded)

52%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tauras at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tauras attack 2.21 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.93 + Tauras defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tauras scores more

40%

level

24%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

36%

Tauras at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff