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Tatran Prešov vs Liptovský Mikuláš — 2. liga 2019

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
8/5/20232. liga2. liga · Round 2Štadión Ličartovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tatran Prešov54%
×Draw23%
Liptovský Mikuláš23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
1.79
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.08

Tatran Prešov creates 66% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 67 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
1.95
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.66

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.50
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.64

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
77%
Tatran Prešov or Liptovský Mikuláš
77%
Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš
46%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
30%
Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
83%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
53%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
26%
Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
66%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
29%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
70%
Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.50 · 44 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 1.95 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.66 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
54%
level
23%
Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
23%

Tatran Prešov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Tatran Prešov 1–0 Liptovský Mikuláš

Tatran Prešov beat Liptovský Mikuláš 1-0 in 2. liga on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Ličartovce in Ličartovce.