Liptovský Mikuláš 1–2 Tatran Prešov: Result & Stats

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Tatran Prešov

9/21/2024

2. liga · Round 8Štadión Liptovský Mikuláš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš41%

×Draw25%

Tatran Prešov34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchTatran Prešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.30

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.45

Tatran Prešov

1.30

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 12% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

1.85

creates per match

1.50

1.10

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.85

Tatran Prešov

1.50

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.10

Tatran Prešov

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Tatran Prešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

66%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Tatran Prešov

75%

Draw or Tatran Prešov

59%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

19%

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

77%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

42%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

18%

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals

73%

Tatran Prešov 2+ goals

37%

Tatran Prešov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

55%

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.85 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tatran Prešov attack 1.50 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

41%

level

25%

Tatran Prešov scores more

34%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff