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Tatabánya vs Puskás II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Tatabánya
Tatabánya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puskás II
Puskás II
3/17/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 20Grosics Gyula Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tatabánya46%
×Draw25%
Puskás II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatabánya
1.60
Puskás II
1.24

Tatabánya creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tatabánya
2.03
Puskás II
1.60

allows per match

Tatabánya
0.87
Puskás II
1.18

finishing

Tatabánya+0.00on par
Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatabánya ↓

Puskás II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tatabánya or draw
70%
Tatabánya or Puskás II
75%
Draw or Puskás II
54%

Winning margin

Tatabánya wins by 2+
23%
Puskás II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tatabánya 1+ goals
80%
Tatabánya 2+ goals
47%
Tatabánya 3+ goals
22%
Puskás II 1+ goals
71%
Puskás II 2+ goals
35%
Puskás II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tatabánya (draw refunded)
61%
Puskás II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatabánya at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatabánya attack 2.03 + Puskás II defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.60

Puskás II attack 1.60 + Tatabánya defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tatabánya scores more
46%
level
25%
Puskás II scores more
30%

Tatabánya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tatabánya vs Puskás II

Tatabánya beat Puskás II 2-0 in NB III - Northwest on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Grosics Gyula Stadion in Tatabánya.