Tatabánya 1–0 Puskás II: Result & Stats

Tatabánya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Puskás II

4/26/2023

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 34Grosics Gyula Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Tatabánya46%

×Draw25%

Puskás II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TatabányaExpected goals in this matchPuskás II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.21

Tatabánya

1.57

Puskás II

1.21

Tatabánya creates 30% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 67 away

1.89

creates per match

1.48

0.95

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Tatabánya

1.89

Puskás II

1.48

allows per match

Tatabánya

0.95

Puskás II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tatabánya+0.00on par

Puskás II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatabánya ↓

Puskás II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tatabánya or draw

71%

Tatabánya or Puskás II

75%

Draw or Puskás II

54%

Winning margin

Tatabánya wins by 2+

23%

Puskás II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tatabánya 1+ goals

79%

Tatabánya 2+ goals

46%

Tatabánya 3+ goals

21%

Puskás II 1+ goals

70%

Puskás II 2+ goals

34%

Puskás II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tatabánya (draw refunded)

61%

Puskás II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatabánya at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.95 · 57 matches

Puskás II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatabánya attack 1.89 + Puskás II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Puskás II attack 1.48 + Tatabánya defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tatabánya scores more

46%

level

25%

Puskás II scores more

29%

Tatabánya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff