Puskás II 1–2 Tatabánya: Result & Stats

Puskás II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tatabánya

3/1/2026

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 18Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Puskás II37%

×Draw24%

Tatabánya39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puskás IIExpected goals in this matchTatabánya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.61

Puskás II

1.56

Tatabánya

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.82

creates per match

2.07

1.16

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Puskás II

1.82

Tatabánya

2.07

allows per match

Puskás II

1.16

Tatabánya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puskás II+0.00on par

Tatabánya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskás II ↓

Tatabánya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Puskás II or draw

61%

Puskás II or Tatabánya

76%

Draw or Tatabánya

63%

Winning margin

Puskás II wins by 2+

18%

Tatabánya wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Puskás II 1+ goals

79%

Puskás II 2+ goals

46%

Puskás II 3+ goals

21%

Tatabánya 1+ goals

80%

Tatabánya 2+ goals

48%

Tatabánya 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Puskás II (draw refunded)

49%

Tatabánya (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskás II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Tatabánya away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskás II attack 1.82 + Tatabánya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tatabánya attack 2.07 + Puskás II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puskás II scores more

37%

level

24%

Tatabánya scores more

39%

Tatabánya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff