Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev — Cup 2020

Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalevadvanced
A. Kiivit 88'
A. Purje 86', 67'
F. Trawally 33'
7/15/2023CupCup · Round of 64Raadi Roheline Jalgpallipark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tartu Welco47%
×Draw17%
Tallinna Kalev36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tartu Welco
3.42
Tallinna Kalev
3.00

Tartu Welco creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tartu Welco
5.60
Tallinna Kalev
4.00

allows per match

Tartu Welco
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.25

finishing

Tartu Welco+0.00on par
Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

92%Yes
  • Yes92
  • No8

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Welco ↓

Tallinna Kalev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–25%
4–35%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
87%13%4.5
74%26%

Double chance

Tartu Welco or draw
64%
Tartu Welco or Tallinna Kalev
83%
Draw or Tallinna Kalev
53%

Winning margin

Tartu Welco wins by 2+
30%
Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tartu Welco 1+ goals
97%
Tartu Welco 2+ goals
85%
Tartu Welco 3+ goals
64%
Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
95%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
79%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)
57%
Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
90%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Welco at home — creates 5.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Welco attack 5.60 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 3.42

Tallinna Kalev attack 4.00 + Tartu Welco defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tartu Welco scores more
47%
level
17%
Tallinna Kalev scores more
36%

Tartu Welco at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tartu Welco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
F. Trawally
67'
A. Purje
86'
A. Purje
88'
A. Kiivit

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev

Tallinna Kalev beat Tartu Welco 4-0 in Cup on July 15, 2023.

Goals: F. Trawally (33'), A. Purje (67', 86'), A. Kiivit (88').

The match was played at Raadi Roheline Jalgpallipark in Tartu.