Tartu Welco 2–3 Tallinna Kalev: Result & Stats

Tartu Welco

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Tallinna Kalev

M. Valtna 65' (pen)

M. Roos 18'

R. Sillamaa 39'

A. Purje 21'

T. Tamberg 9'

10/31/2021

Esiliiga A · Round 27Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tartu Welco33%

×Draw22%

Tallinna Kalev46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tartu WelcoExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.00

Tartu Welco

1.68

Tallinna Kalev

2.00

Tallinna Kalev creates 19% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 21 away

1.88

creates per match

2.29

1.71

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Tartu Welco

1.88

Tallinna Kalev

2.29

allows per match

Tartu Welco

1.71

Tallinna Kalev

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tartu Welco ↓

Tallinna Kalev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Tartu Welco or draw

54%

Tartu Welco or Tallinna Kalev

78%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev

67%

Winning margin

Tartu Welco wins by 2+

16%

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Tartu Welco 1+ goals

81%

Tartu Welco 2+ goals

50%

Tartu Welco 3+ goals

24%

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals

86%

Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals

59%

Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Tartu Welco (draw refunded)

42%

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tartu Welco at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.71 · 69 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tartu Welco attack 1.88 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tallinna Kalev attack 2.29 + Tartu Welco defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tartu Welco scores more

33%

level

22%

Tallinna Kalev scores more

46%

Tallinna Kalev at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

18'

21'

39'

53'

55'

D. Sõtšugov← R. Reimaa

55'

M. Vaherna← R. Sillamaa

64'

A. Aus← M. Mugra

64'

M. Penu← J. Luts

65'

M. ValtnaPenalty

66'

S. El Aabchi← M. Riisenberg

71'

Eric Pärn← A. Vool

73'

R. Jeeret← M. Mägi

90+3'

K. Käit← H. Palutaja

Tartu

Tallinna

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Eelmäe

64'▲A. Aus←▼M. Mugra

64'▲M. Penu←▼J. Luts

71'▲Eric Pärn←▼A. Vool

73'▲R. Jeeret←▼M. Mägi

Tartu Welco substitutes

AusPenuPärnJeeretPõldveeArst

Manager: D. Meijel

55'▲D. Sõtšugov←▼R. Reimaa

55'▲M. Vaherna←▼R. Sillamaa

66'▲S. El Aabchi←▼M. Riisenberg

90+3'▲K. Käit←▼H. Palutaja

Tallinna Kalev substitutes

SõtšugovVahernaAabchiKäitSmirnovRaiderJürisoo

Esiliiga A: Tartu Welco 2–3 Tallinna Kalev

Tallinna Kalev beat Tartu Welco 3-2 in Esiliiga A on October 31, 2021.

Goals: T. Tamberg (9'), M. Roos (18'), A. Purje (21'), R. Sillamaa (39'), M. Valtna (65' pen).

The match was played at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion in Tartu.

Tartu Welco vs Tallinna Kalev — Esiliiga A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Esiliiga A: Tartu Welco 2–3 Tallinna Kalev