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Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco — Esiliiga A 2026

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
CANC
10:00
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
10/16/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 33Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tallinna Kalev49%
×Draw21%
Tartu Welco30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.68

Tallinna Kalev creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 70 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
2.52
Tartu Welco
1.79

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
1.57
Tartu Welco
1.81

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Tartu Welco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
70%
Tallinna Kalev or Tartu Welco
79%
Draw or Tartu Welco
51%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
29%
Tartu Welco wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
89%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
64%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
36%
Tartu Welco 1+ goals
81%
Tartu Welco 2+ goals
50%
Tartu Welco 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
62%
Tartu Welco (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Tartu Welco away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.81 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 2.52 + Tartu Welco defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.17

Tartu Welco attack 1.79 + Tallinna Kalev defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
49%
level
21%
Tartu Welco scores more
30%

Tallinna Kalev at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco — Match Preview

Tallinna Kalev face Tartu Welco on October 16, 2021 in this Esiliiga A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tallinna Kalev host Tartu Welco at Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.