Taraz 1–0 Jas Qyran: Result & Stats | Cup

Taraz

AET

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jas Qyran

S. Kemelbek 117'

3/22/2024

Cup · Play-offsBIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Taraz45%

×Draw23%

Jas Qyran32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TarazExpected goals in this matchJas Qyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.54

Taraz

1.85

Jas Qyran

1.54

Taraz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

1.46

creates per match

2.00

1.08

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Taraz

1.46

Jas Qyran

2.00

allows per match

Taraz

1.08

Jas Qyran

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Jas Qyran →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Taraz or draw

68%

Taraz or Jas Qyran

77%

Draw or Jas Qyran

55%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+

25%

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals

84%

Taraz 2+ goals

55%

Taraz 3+ goals

28%

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

79%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

45%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)

58%

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.46 + Jas Qyran defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Jas Qyran attack 2.00 + Taraz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Taraz scores more

45%

level

23%

Jas Qyran scores more

32%

Taraz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Taraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Kemelbek← S. Kemelbek

54'

D. Lesbek

55'

E. Rakhmetulla

56'

A. Zhaysanbek

56'

T. Mukhametzhanov

56'

A. Ashirbek

59'

S. Kemelbek

76'

E. Keulimzhay

89'

N. Baybosynov← N. Baybosynov

89'

I. Nizamidinov← I. Nizamidinov

101'

105'

B. Abdullaev← B. Abdullaev

105'

I. Veremeev← I. Veremeev

117'

S. Kemelbek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff