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Taraz vs Jas Qyran — 1. Division 2019

Taraz
Taraz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
D. Orynbasar 54'
B. Rakhmet 29' (pen)
10/20/20231. Division1. Division · Round 28Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Taraz59%
×Draw20%
Jas Qyran21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taraz
2.19
Jas Qyran
1.23

Taraz creates 78% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

creates per match

Taraz
1.94
Jas Qyran
1.21

allows per match

Taraz
1.25
Jas Qyran
2.43

finishing

Taraz+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taraz ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Taraz or draw
79%
Taraz or Jas Qyran
80%
Draw or Jas Qyran
41%

Winning margin

Taraz wins by 2+
36%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Taraz 1+ goals
89%
Taraz 2+ goals
64%
Taraz 3+ goals
37%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
71%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
35%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Taraz (draw refunded)
74%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taraz at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taraz attack 1.94 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.19

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Taraz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Taraz scores more
59%
level
20%
Jas Qyran scores more
21%

Taraz at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Taraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
B. RakhmetPenalty
54'
D. Orynbasar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taraz vs Jas Qyran

Taraz beat Jas Qyran 2-0 in 1. Division on October 20, 2023.

Goals: B. Rakhmet (29' pen), D. Orynbasar (54').

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Taraz.