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Jas Qyran vs Taraz — 1. Division 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Taraz
Taraz
A. Zhaysanbek 90+5'
A. Seitov 89' (pen)
S. Glazunov 78', 47'
A. Kalymbetov 62' (OG)
E. Kaldybekov 45'
7/6/20231. Division1. Division · Round 14Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran58%
×Draw21%
Taraz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
2.10
Taraz
1.21

Jas Qyran creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 48 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
2.36
Taraz
1.13

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.29
Taraz
1.85

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Taraz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Taraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
78%
Jas Qyran or Taraz
79%
Draw or Taraz
42%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
35%
Taraz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
88%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
62%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
35%
Taraz 1+ goals
70%
Taraz 2+ goals
34%
Taraz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
73%
Taraz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Taraz away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Taraz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.10

Taraz attack 1.13 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
58%
level
21%
Taraz scores more
22%

Jas Qyran at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
E. Kaldybekov
47'
S. Glazunov
62'
A. KalymbetovOwn goal
77'
N. Agzambayev
77'
Z. Umirzakov
78'
S. Glazunov
89'
A. SeitovPenalty
90+5'
A. Zhaysanbek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Jas Qyran 4–2 Taraz

Jas Qyran beat Taraz 4-2 in 1. Division on July 6, 2023.

Goals: E. Kaldybekov (45'), S. Glazunov (47', 78'), A. Kalymbetov (62' o.g.), A. Seitov (89' pen), A. Zhaysanbek (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.