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Tapachula vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
CANC
01:00
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
3/22/2020Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 9Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tapachula47%
×Draw26%
Tampico Madero27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.46
Tampico Madero
1.03

Tapachula creates 42% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.77
Tampico Madero
0.89

allows per match

Tapachula
1.17
Tampico Madero
1.16

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
73%
Tapachula or Tampico Madero
74%
Draw or Tampico Madero
53%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
23%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
77%
Tapachula 2+ goals
43%
Tapachula 3+ goals
18%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
64%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
28%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
64%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.77 + Tampico Madero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tampico Madero attack 0.89 + Tapachula defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tapachula scores more
47%
level
26%
Tampico Madero scores more
27%

Tapachula at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tapachula host Tampico Madero

March 22, 2020: Tapachula take on Tampico Madero in Liga de Expansión MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tapachula host Tampico Madero at Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.