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Tapachula vs Tampico Madero — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tapachula
Tapachula
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
3/6/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tapachula45%
×Draw27%
Tampico Madero28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tapachula
1.42
Tampico Madero
1.05

Tapachula creates 35% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tapachula
1.68
Tampico Madero
0.91

allows per match

Tapachula
1.19
Tampico Madero
1.17

finishing

Tapachula+0.00on par
Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tapachula ↓

Tampico Madero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tapachula or draw
72%
Tapachula or Tampico Madero
73%
Draw or Tampico Madero
55%

Winning margin

Tapachula wins by 2+
22%
Tampico Madero wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tapachula 1+ goals
76%
Tapachula 2+ goals
41%
Tapachula 3+ goals
17%
Tampico Madero 1+ goals
65%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
28%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tapachula (draw refunded)
62%
Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tapachula at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Tampico Madero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tapachula attack 1.68 + Tampico Madero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tampico Madero attack 0.91 + Tapachula defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tapachula scores more
45%
level
27%
Tampico Madero scores more
28%

Tapachula at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tapachula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tapachula 3–1 Tampico Madero

Tapachula beat Tampico Madero 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Tapachula (Tapachula).