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Tampico Madero vs Tapachula — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tapachula
Tapachula
9/30/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tampico Madero49%
×Draw25%
Tapachula26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampico Madero
1.59
Tapachula
1.09

Tampico Madero creates 46% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tampico Madero
1.15
Tapachula
1.24

allows per match

Tampico Madero
0.95
Tapachula
2.03

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Tapachula+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Tapachula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw
74%
Tampico Madero or Tapachula
75%
Draw or Tapachula
51%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+
25%
Tapachula wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals
80%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
47%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
21%
Tapachula 1+ goals
66%
Tapachula 2+ goals
30%
Tapachula 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
65%
Tapachula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Tapachula away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.03 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.15 + Tapachula defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tapachula attack 1.24 + Tampico Madero defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tampico Madero scores more
49%
level
25%
Tapachula scores more
26%

Tampico Madero at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tampico Madero 0 – 2 Tapachula

Tapachula beat Tampico Madero 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero).