Tambov vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 35+ matches
Tambov52%
Shinnik Yaroslavl23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tambov creates 65% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 126 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tambov ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tambov at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches
Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 126 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tambov attack 1.69 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.58
Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Tambov defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Tambov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Tambov substitutes
Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes
Tambov
PFC Sochi
TOM Tomsk
Nizhny Novgorod
Chertanovo MoscowShinnik Yaroslavl
Ska-khabarovsk
Avangard Kursk
Khimki
Krasnodar 2
Rotor Volgograd
Mordovia Saransk
Luch-Energiya
Spartak Moscow 2
FC Armavir
Baltika
Fakel Voronezh
Sibir
Zenit 2
TyumenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tambov host Shinnik Yaroslavl on Monday, 13 March 2017 at 10:30. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Tambov vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Tambov 1-0 in First League on March 13, 2017.
Goals: M. Lauk (75').
The match was played at Stadion Rodina (Khimki).