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Tambov vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Tambov
Tambov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
4/24/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Stadion Spartak (Tambov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tambov52%
×Draw26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambov
1.55
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.93

Tambov creates 67% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 123 away

creates per match

Tambov
1.62
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Tambov
0.86
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Tambov+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tambov or draw
77%
Tambov or Shinnik Yaroslavl
74%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
48%

Winning margin

Tambov wins by 2+
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tambov 1+ goals
79%
Tambov 2+ goals
46%
Tambov 3+ goals
20%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
61%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tambov (draw refunded)
70%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov attack 1.62 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Tambov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tambov scores more
52%
level
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
23%

Tambov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tambov 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Tambov beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-0 in First League on April 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Tambov).