Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Tambov: Result & Stats

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tambov

E. Nizamutdinov 90'

9/30/2017

First League · Round 16Stadion Urozhaj (Karavaevo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl37%

×Draw30%

Tambov33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchTambov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.00

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.08

Tambov

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 34 away

1.16

creates per match

0.94

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.16

Tambov

0.94

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.06

Tambov

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Tambov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

67%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Tambov

70%

Draw or Tambov

63%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

15%

Tambov wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

66%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

29%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

10%

Tambov 1+ goals

63%

Tambov 2+ goals

26%

Tambov 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

53%

Tambov (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 126 matches

Tambov away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.16 + Tambov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tambov attack 0.94 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

37%

level

30%

Tambov scores more

33%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Shlyakov← M. Bystrov

56'

I. Kukharchuk← O. Chernyshov

61'

A. Skvortsov← S. Shevchuk

62'

M. Shaymordanov← N. Bezlikhotnov

69'

A. Lyakh← N. Drozdov

74'

S. Kramarenko← D. Samoylov

81'

V. Ryzhkov← M. Trusevich

84'

A. Fatikhov← V. Kamilov

90'

E. Nizamutdinov

Shinnik

Tambov

1

Smirnov

33

Gultyaev

11

▼

Shevchuk

4

Ovsienko

96

▼

Bystrov

30

▼

81

70

2

7

▼

15

16

23

65

78

11

99

▼

Bezlikhot

13

▼

Drozdov

17

Shchadin

21

▼

Kamilov

15

▼

Samoylov

9

⚽

Nizamutdi

Manager: A. Pobegalov

62'▲M. Shaymordanov←▼N. Bezlikhotnov

69'▲A. Lyakh←▼N. Drozdov

74'▲S. Kramarenko←▼D. Samoylov

84'▲A. Fatikhov←▼V. Kamilov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

14Shaymordanov90Lyakh70Kramarenko75Fatikhov2Magadiev5Evseev6Kagermazov7Bulia22Antipin33Karpov

Manager: A. Talalaev

46'▲E. Shlyakov←▼M. Bystrov

56'▲I. Kukharchuk←▼O. Chernyshov

61'▲A. Skvortsov←▼S. Shevchuk

81'▲V. Ryzhkov←▼M. Trusevich

Tambov substitutes

5Shlyakov10Kukharchuk92Skvortsov8Ryzhkov6Dutov19Mikhalev21Vavilin69Ignatovich

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Tambov

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Tambov 1-0 in First League on September 30, 2017.

Goals: E. Nizamutdinov (90').

The match was played at Stadion Urozhaj (Karavaevo).

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Tambov — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Tambov