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Tallinna Kalev vs Laagri — Meistriliiga 2026

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Laagri
Laagri
5/3/2025MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 11Kadrioru Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tallinna Kalev37%
×Draw24%
Laagri39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
1.50
Laagri
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
0.99
Laagri
0.96

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
2.13
Laagri
2.02

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
Laagri+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Laagri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
61%
Tallinna Kalev or Laagri
76%
Draw or Laagri
63%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
18%
Laagri wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
78%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
44%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
19%
Laagri 1+ goals
79%
Laagri 2+ goals
45%
Laagri 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
49%
Laagri (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 0.99, concedes 2.13 · 106 matches

Laagri away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 0.99 + Laagri defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.50

Laagri attack 0.96 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
37%
level
24%
Laagri scores more
39%

Laagri at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tallinna Kalev vs Laagri

Laagri beat Tallinna Kalev 3-1 in Meistriliiga on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Kadrioru Staadion in Tallinn.