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Tallinna Kalev vs Laagri — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tallinna Kalev
Tallinna Kalev
FT
1 – 2
Laagri
Laagri
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3EJL Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tallinna Kalev41%
×Draw23%
Laagri36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tallinna Kalev
1.71
Laagri
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tallinna Kalev
1.67
Laagri
1.00

allows per match

Tallinna Kalev
2.17
Laagri
1.75

finishing

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par
Laagri+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tallinna Kalev ↓

Laagri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tallinna Kalev or draw
64%
Tallinna Kalev or Laagri
77%
Draw or Laagri
59%

Winning margin

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+
21%
Laagri wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals
82%
Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals
51%
Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals
24%
Laagri 1+ goals
79%
Laagri 2+ goals
47%
Laagri 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)
54%
Laagri (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tallinna Kalev at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Laagri away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tallinna Kalev attack 1.67 + Laagri defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Laagri attack 1.00 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tallinna Kalev scores more
41%
level
23%
Laagri scores more
36%

Tallinna Kalev at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Tallinna Kalev 1–2 Laagri

Laagri beat Tallinna Kalev 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at EJL Jalgpallihall in Tallinn.