Laagri 2–0 Tallinna Kalev: Result & Stats

Laagri

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tallinna Kalev

3/9/2025

Meistriliiga · Round 2Laagri kunstmurustaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Laagri50%

×Draw23%

Tallinna Kalev27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaagriExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.29

Laagri

1.83

Tallinna Kalev

1.29

Laagri creates 42% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 105 away

1.26

creates per match

1.00

1.57

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Laagri

1.26

Tallinna Kalev

1.00

allows per match

Laagri

1.57

Tallinna Kalev

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laagri+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laagri ↓

Tallinna Kalev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Laagri or draw

73%

Laagri or Tallinna Kalev

77%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev

50%

Winning margin

Laagri wins by 2+

28%

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Laagri 1+ goals

84%

Laagri 2+ goals

54%

Laagri 3+ goals

28%

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals

72%

Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals

37%

Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Laagri (draw refunded)

65%

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laagri at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laagri attack 1.26 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.83

Tallinna Kalev attack 1.00 + Laagri defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Laagri scores more

50%

level

23%

Tallinna Kalev scores more

27%

Laagri at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff