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Talleres Remedios vs San Miguel — Primera Nacional 2026

Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Miguel
San Miguel
2/3/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 1Estadio Pablo Comelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Talleres Remedios37%
×Draw34%
San Miguel29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Remedios
0.91
San Miguel
0.77

Talleres Remedios creates 18% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 48 away

creates per match

Talleres Remedios
0.75
San Miguel
0.56

allows per match

Talleres Remedios
0.97
San Miguel
1.06

finishing

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Remedios ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Talleres Remedios or draw
71%
Talleres Remedios or San Miguel
66%
Draw or San Miguel
63%

Winning margin

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
13%
San Miguel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
60%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
23%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
6%
San Miguel 1+ goals
54%
San Miguel 2+ goals
18%
San Miguel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
56%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Remedios at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Remedios attack 0.75 + San Miguel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

San Miguel attack 0.56 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Talleres Remedios scores more
37%
level
34%
San Miguel scores more
29%

Talleres Remedios at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Talleres Remedios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Talleres Remedios vs San Miguel

Talleres Remedios and San Miguel drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pablo Comelli in Remedios Escalada, Provincia de Buenos Aires.