San Miguel 2–1 Talleres Remedios: Result & Stats

San Miguel

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Talleres Remedios

7/8/2023

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 5Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

San Miguel34%

×Draw33%

Talleres Remedios32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MiguelExpected goals in this matchTalleres Remedios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.86

San Miguel

0.90

Talleres Remedios

0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 99 away

0.85

creates per match

0.97

0.76

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

San Miguel

0.85

Talleres Remedios

0.97

allows per match

San Miguel

0.76

Talleres Remedios

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par

Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Talleres Remedios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw

68%

San Miguel or Talleres Remedios

67%

Draw or Talleres Remedios

66%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+

12%

Talleres Remedios wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals

59%

San Miguel 2+ goals

23%

San Miguel 3+ goals

6%

Talleres Remedios 1+ goals

58%

Talleres Remedios 2+ goals

21%

Talleres Remedios 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)

52%

Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.76 · 89 matches

Talleres Remedios away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 0.85 + Talleres Remedios defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Talleres Remedios attack 0.97 + San Miguel defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

San Miguel scores more

34%

level

33%

Talleres Remedios scores more

32%

San Miguel at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff