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San Miguel vs Talleres Remedios — Primera Nacional 2026

San Miguel
San Miguel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Talleres Remedios
Talleres Remedios
6/22/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 20Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

San Miguel53%
×Draw30%
Talleres Remedios17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Miguel
1.25
Talleres Remedios
0.56

San Miguel creates 123% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

creates per match

San Miguel
1.22
Talleres Remedios
0.44

allows per match

San Miguel
0.67
Talleres Remedios
1.28

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par
Talleres Remedios+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Talleres Remedios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw
83%
San Miguel or Talleres Remedios
70%
Draw or Talleres Remedios
47%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+
25%
Talleres Remedios wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals
71%
San Miguel 2+ goals
36%
San Miguel 3+ goals
13%
Talleres Remedios 1+ goals
43%
Talleres Remedios 2+ goals
11%
Talleres Remedios 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)
76%
Talleres Remedios (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Talleres Remedios away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.22 + Talleres Remedios defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Talleres Remedios attack 0.44 + San Miguel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

San Miguel scores more
53%
level
30%
Talleres Remedios scores more
17%

San Miguel at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: San Miguel 0–0 Talleres Remedios

San Miguel and Talleres Remedios drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Los Polvorines, Provincia de Buenos Aires.