Talleres Cordoba 2–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Talleres Cordoba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

C. Auzqui 60'

H. Fértoli 46'

A. Schott 50'

9/14/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Talleres Cordoba44%

×Draw32%

Platense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Talleres CordobaExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.72

Talleres Cordoba

1.09

Platense

0.72

Talleres Cordoba creates 51% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

0.98

creates per match

0.73

0.72

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.98

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba

0.72

Platense

1.21

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Talleres Cordoba-0.08on par

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw

76%

Talleres Cordoba or Platense

68%

Draw or Platense

56%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

18%

Platense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

66%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

30%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

10%

Platense 1+ goals

51%

Platense 2+ goals

16%

Platense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

65%

Platense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.72 · 21 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.98 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Platense attack 0.73 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more

44%

level

32%

Platense scores more

24%

Talleres Cordoba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

C. Auzqui

Talleres Cordoba · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

Lucas Acevedo

46'

H. Fértoli↳ D. Valoyes

50'

A. Schott

60'

C. Auzqui

68'

M. Bogado← I. Gómez

68'

F. Curuchet← M. Tissera

72'

M. Santos← H. Fértoli

72'

Á. Martino← M. Retegui

81'

T. Sandoval← F. Baldassarra

81'

H. Tijanovich← N. Bertolo

85'

Carlos Auzqui

88'

J. Komar← C. Auzqui

90+2'

F. Mac Allister← I. Méndez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TalleresPlatense

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots10

3Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target4

6Off Target5

1Blocked1

10Inside Box4

2Outside Box6

Passing

68%Possession32%

570Total Passes274

456Accurate Passes171

80%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4