Tai'an Tiankuang 0–0 Rizhao Yuqi: Result & Stats

Tai'an Tiankuang

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rizhao Yuqi

4/25/2026

League Two · Round 5Taishan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tai'an Tiankuang45%

×Draw28%

Rizhao Yuqi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tai'an TiankuangExpected goals in this matchRizhao Yuqi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.94

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.30

Rizhao Yuqi

0.94

Tai'an Tiankuang creates 38% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 36 away

1.27

creates per match

0.92

0.95

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.27

Rizhao Yuqi

0.92

allows per match

Tai'an Tiankuang

0.95

Rizhao Yuqi

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Rizhao Yuqi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tai'an Tiankuang ↓

Rizhao Yuqi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tai'an Tiankuang or draw

73%

Tai'an Tiankuang or Rizhao Yuqi

72%

Draw or Rizhao Yuqi

55%

Winning margin

Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+

21%

Rizhao Yuqi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals

73%

Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals

37%

Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals

14%

Rizhao Yuqi 1+ goals

61%

Rizhao Yuqi 2+ goals

24%

Rizhao Yuqi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)

62%

Rizhao Yuqi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tai'an Tiankuang at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Rizhao Yuqi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.27 + Rizhao Yuqi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rizhao Yuqi attack 0.92 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tai'an Tiankuang scores more

45%

level

28%

Rizhao Yuqi scores more

27%

Tai'an Tiankuang at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tai'an Tiankuang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff