Tai'an Tiankuang 3–0 Rizhao Yuqi: Result & Stats

Tai'an Tiankuang

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rizhao Yuqi

Ma Ruize 69'

Yuan Xiuqi 60'

Zhang Xingliang 51'

4/27/2025

League Two · Round 6Taishan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tai'an Tiankuang45%

×Draw28%

Rizhao Yuqi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tai'an TiankuangExpected goals in this matchRizhao Yuqi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.94

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.30

Rizhao Yuqi

0.94

Tai'an Tiankuang creates 38% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 36 away

1.27

creates per match

0.92

0.95

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.27

Rizhao Yuqi

0.92

allows per match

Tai'an Tiankuang

0.95

Rizhao Yuqi

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Rizhao Yuqi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tai'an Tiankuang ↓

Rizhao Yuqi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tai'an Tiankuang or draw

73%

Tai'an Tiankuang or Rizhao Yuqi

72%

Draw or Rizhao Yuqi

55%

Winning margin

Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+

21%

Rizhao Yuqi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals

73%

Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals

37%

Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals

14%

Rizhao Yuqi 1+ goals

61%

Rizhao Yuqi 2+ goals

24%

Rizhao Yuqi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)

62%

Rizhao Yuqi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tai'an Tiankuang at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Rizhao Yuqi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.27 + Rizhao Yuqi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rizhao Yuqi attack 0.92 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tai'an Tiankuang scores more

45%

level

28%

Rizhao Yuqi scores more

27%

Tai'an Tiankuang at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tai'an Tiankuang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Nihmat Nihat

45'

Chen Kerui

46'

Tang Qirun← Lu Hongda

46'

Ma Ruize← Wang Bohan

46'

Zhang Chongguang← Gong Yunyang

51'

Zhang Xingliang↳ Wang Meng

60'

68'

69'

71'

77'

Tan Fucheng← Zhang Xingliang

79'

Guo Ze← Pan Yuchen

79'

S. Memetabla← Chen Yu

83'

Bai Tianci

85'

Lin Guoyu← Tian Xin

87'

Liu Yang← Chen Kerui

89'

Xu Haojunmeng← Zhuang Jiajie

90+3'

Nihmat Nihat

90+3'

Nihmat Nihat

Tai'an

Rizhao

13

11

47

20

46

▼

Yu

39

▼

Kerui

5

Abdukerim

10

▼

Yuchen

7

▼

Yunyang

9

Tianci

15

Mijit

1

A

Meng

52

▼

32

5

16

37

▼

Jiajie

8

⚽

Xiuqi

18

Zhilei

9

▼

Hongda

7

⚽

▼

Xingliang

10

A

▼

Xin

Manager: Marko Dimitrijević

46'▲Tang Qirun←▼Lu Hongda

46'▲Ma Ruize←▼Wang Bohan

77'▲Tan Fucheng←▼Zhang Xingliang

85'▲Lin Guoyu←▼Tian Xin

89'▲Xu Haojunmeng←▼Zhuang Jiajie

Tai'an Tiankuang substitutes

6Qirun47Haojunmeng23Xie11Fucheng17Ming46Sheng58Ruize33Guoyu29Ji14Xiaorui19Weixiang42Yuxi

Manager: Yuanwei Yu

46'▲Zhang Chongguang←▼Gong Yunyang

79'▲Guo Ze←▼Pan Yuchen

79'▲S. Memetabla←▼Chen Yu

87'▲Liu Yang←▼Chen Kerui

Rizhao Yuqi substitutes

38Ze16Yanxin24Jinkui6Yang25Zongyang26Jingxuan21Memetabla8Chongguang